auch wenn ich kein Sammler bin, geistert mir natürlich immer auch wieder durch den Kopf, ob sich die zukünftige Preisentwicklung von jetzt schon teuren Rums (500€ aufwärts) in z.B. 10 Jahren immer noch nach oben entwickeln kann. Ich meine gibt es einen Preis, bei dem die Entwicklungskurve abflacht und einfach nicht mehr höher steigt? Wie sind Eure Erfahrungen der letzten Jahre?
(Beispiel: Der Caroni 100th Anniversary ist aktuell auf dem besten Weg unter 350€ nicht mehr verfügbar zu sein. Das wäre dann ein Sprung um 50€ im Vergleich zu den letzten Monaten. Aber wird er irgendwann auch 500€ wert sein oder ist hier die Grenze?)
The world of amateurs in which there is a limit of price, the rums they buy are for drinking. (Even if in the past rums bought for drinking gained a lot of value. Even if some rare amateurs can buy a really expensive rum to sip). The rums in this category are gaining value because they are recognized as exceptional in term of taste. If I’m analyzing it correctly they gain value as everyone wants them, then there is a limit. Amateurs are thinking : I don’t want to pay such a crazy price for that rum. I can also wait for the next one.
And the price stabilize around that limit.
It would take a real long time and a lot of bottles finished to see a possible value increase for those rums.
The world of investors in which the bottles are bought solely for the increase of value they represent. In here, the sky is the limit. You can see rare whiskies at one million euro. Can it happen to the rum world ? Yes, for very rare rums like Skeldon 1978. Is the taste important ? Yes, but the scarcity is here the key.
Auf dem Zweitmarkt wird der Velier Caroni 100th Anniversary grade ziemlich stabil für 250€ verkauft. Da ist es wie @cigares es gesagt hat. Da steigen andere Abfüllung wie der Very Old Navy grade mehr. Der hat den Caroni schon eingeholt.
Of course the world is never so easy and if some rums are clearly belonging to one category, some are in-between. Like “The Last” Caroni.
There is also the future possible high inflation that can change everything. If there is a huge inflation in front of us, one way to protect yourself against it is to buy at today’s price, goods (any goods that can resist a lot of years in term of quality) that will see a lot of price increase in the future. In inflationary countries people buy, buy they don’t want to keep money as money tends to devalue quickly.
I know people around that are thinking like that. Can it take influence the price of rum, I don’t know.
Ok so what is scarcity? 5 bottles left? 20? Some Caronis have a rating of 9 and higher, but a count of 200 at release. Why aren’t they worth thousands of euros like the Skeldons or at least half the price?
And then you have the collectors, I have a friend who is a crazy Whisky collector, if he collects a special whisky line and one bottle is missing, he can buy at almost any price. Even if he’s not so wealthy, even if that means weeks of privations. No logic here outside the desire to complete a collection. So that can lead to very high prices too. You can sometimes see that phenomenon on auctions.
Don’t confuse rums beeing worth thousends with rums that are paid thausends for.
These old Skeldons seem to have that “legendary sphere” that the Caroni rums failed to establish so far (with some exceptions) as their quality isn’t constantly high.
I think it will become like the whisky market, maybe not as extreme but still.
First are growing recognition attracting more people and thus some more who collect. To those collectors, price is not such an argument against buying as for consumers. As in the Whiskey market, there will be bottles that are just sold from one collector or even investor to the other. Good example here already: Caroni, old Demerara Veliers…
Second there is the usual inflation, currently very high in the euro zone as we no longer use cheap Russian energy and this reflects in higher costs for everything. Shops will have to consider those cost increase and must increase their price accordingly.
Third there is the general question of a healthy business environment: is the currency strong or weak? Are people having enough money left or do they struggle? Are businesses closing or flourishing? Some EU countries currently have a difficult time, and this will also reflect on the market: weak Euro means it is possibly more expensive to import R(h)um. But this is very difficult to estimate.
There were the real prices are seen… rum and whisky trade groups on massenger apps. One was in germany five in italy. Just wanted to say it is hard to tell which one will rise. And shops are no good for telling a real market value. Why the bristol Caronis are still so cheap. I guess the labels are not fancy enough . Plus velier has the tropical aging. Beeing the first in cask strength etc.
You also have to keep in mind that the pricing of luxury products like rum is not necessarily based on rational principles, but has a lot to do with emotions - at least on the secondary market. I have paid considerably more for a very old J.M than it would have been worth to most. And that was because I wanted it badly. It was like an obsession.
But what worries me more is the fact that issue prices also seem to be rising on average. Price increases in the primary market are the bigger annoyances, in my opinion, because they set the baseline for future price increases.
And I know I’m repeating myself, but: Everything is only worth as much as someone is willingy to pay for it.
For a future forecast, this means: In times of high purchasing power, prices will probably tend to rise. In times of declining purchasing power, prices will tend to stagnate or fall.
Die Tendenz am Rum Markt ist relativ eindeutig.
Die Wertsteigerung von Rum liegt seit langem über dem, was marktübliche Zinsen bringen.
Selbst bei “Süßkram” wie Butucal Single Vintage 2000 minimal 500% seit 2015.
Erstaunlich für mich ist nur, dass das für RX1- RX16xxxx gilt( +/- bei den %), was für ein gigantischer Markt.
Da ich diesen Markt seit über 8 Jahren intensiv beobachte, gehe ich davon aus, dass sich diese Tendenz weiter fortsetzt, unabhängig von Inflation, da gerade in inflationären Zeiten viele in wertstabile Anlagen flüchten (siehe auch Gold).
Das der Markt überheizt ist, ist unbestritten, aber ich gehe davon aus, dass sich diese Tendenz fortsetzen wird. Rummarket Rendite über Geldmarktzins for ever!
The price is driven by the rarity and the rarity is driven by the quality (and marketing). We are having more limited releases to capitalize on FOMO. If one is of good quality, people will just buy it, drink it, reduce number of bottles in the market and increase the price.
I’m sure the rum market will grow like crazy.
And the legendary bottles are still being opened, thus becoming even more rare. How many unopened Skeldons can there be in the world now? 30 bottles?