„Investors Corner“ or where will prices soar

I wonder where prices will go after seeing the 35K for a Velier Skeldon. Will we see the same destiny that happened to single malt whiskeys or the french Medoc and Pomerol wines? And like with the great premier crus, meanwhile there are much better wines at lower prices. The destiny of a winery is defined whether you donated free bottles to Robert Parker. The employee series of Velier‘s Caroni bottlings is more expensive then „The Last“ as they are single casks and lower numbers, but rated lower. If we devided the price by points rated at RumX, we would get a different ranking. What are your thoughts? Will speculators and wealthy people, not necessarily being enthusiasts, just because they can afford it, kill the hobby?

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I believe taste is not the only thing that determines the price. It’s quite natural for me that rarity is also a factor, just because you want to try something you haven’t tried yet you are ready to pay more (at least I am). And as you named it, the pricy rums are collector items, so the ones interested in building a collection, not necessarily consumption.

No doubts that rums are subject to price speculation and obviously this has disadvantages since the prices are generally higher and we, drinkers, need to pay more. On the other hand, there are also many advantages of this situation:

  • the producers are generally more motivated to produce quality rums and increase transparency. More distilleries and indies will start to operate and there are greater chances for new good rums being released. Remember El Dorado who discontinued their Rare Collection because it was only understood by few? Now the few rise in numbers.
  • flippers keep rums so that we are able to drink them now. This point is controversial but let’s look at it: It would be impossible to buy a Skeldon 1973 today if it’s price hasn’t been modified over the years. Every bottle would have just been bought and drank. However, this release becomes rarer with every open bottle. People found out they can earn by keeping instead of drinking it so that now we can drink it… Instead of earning :slight_smile: . If the price had been the same, there would have been no point of saving Skeldon for later.
  • read a book about rum history and you will find out it was generally treated as an inferior drink. I think collector’s interest means rum becomes thought of as something valuable, not only financially but also culturally.
  • last but not least, we are the rum community, the experts. Who has greater knowledge than us and can take advantage of the situation instead of complaining? Look at the bright side :slight_smile: , like the splits, our mechanism of adaptation to price increases.
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This answer is incredible! Thank you sir

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Kudzey, incredible answer indeed! I would agree to the most of your points.

I still doubt that we will have more opportunities to drink the rare and thought after stuff as these rare bottles are unlikely to be opened or shared. They have become sole investments. People did drink these bottlings before they where hyped. The remaining ones are now handed over from aution to collection to auction. Of course price reflects now the rarity and not necessarily the quality.
I completely agree that a community that is willing to pay for quality will have a positive effect on distilleries and ib. But watch out, it will change once the Diageo’s of the world are buying in more. Standardized products, streamlined production, marketing bottlings. Regards from Lagavulin and Ardbeg. Cheers

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but now, the question: what rums will continue to increase in price, what rums will stabilize on a current level (the Nobilis seem to), what is the future hot stuff (some of the RA)?
The big move we have seen basically is for about two years now with some Silver Seal and Velier doubling every year

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In my opinion, there won’t be any other big step up in prices regarding standard products from “living” distilleries like Hampden, Foursquare etc in Europe.

For the average consumer(!) market, the price target depends heavily on the maximum individual purchasing power for luxury items. I think the peak has now been passed due to the recession.
And I think, most of the B & IB are already aware of the fact, that the average consumer isn’t willing anymore to pay lots of money for drinking(!) standards.
But in fact it is possible, that the average quality will decrease for a while due to this circumstances. But that also levels off again, since otherwise customers lose general interest and look for alternatives (Armagnac…).

For (big) investors, the returns and security of alternative investments are crucial for their investment. Let’s wait and see if the ECB doesn’t automatically provide some relief via the key interest rates. We’ll see.

And of course, there will always be small, greedy resellers(“tiny investors”), but when the maximum price is reached, they no longer have a major impact on the (long-term)price, only on the immediate availability. At best, the boys will sit on their bottles in the future and can then check, whether their perceptions match the general source data for their purchase decision within the scope of their own consumption.

And the group of people who, because of their economic situation, don’t have to worry about the price at all, yes, of course there are always those.
And therefore ist’s possible that the price for rarities stays in the same luxurious range. But I think that’s only regarding a few releases from Velier (old Demeraras / tropical Caroni). A (e.g.) “standard” GH 2022 or a 8x0,2 LMDW Hampden-Set won’t ever reach those dimensions, because these standard products are still replacable and there will be a big amount of similiar goods in the future. Thanks to Luca!

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The Skeldons are being drank, with much celebration, of course, but these bottlings are still being opened. Look, for instance, what I got from Rum Trades newsletter from three months ago.


And at some point, the last bottle will be gone, probably without my share :sob:

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I had many rums costing 40 .and many rums costing more but I think for me the 40 odd pounds…rums are hard to beat so many good rums at that price point

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This is true for standard range releases - although in recent years with the introduction of the Hampden Estate many of the better standard releases are above 40€.

For Single Cask Rums or other limited releases, 40€/GBP isn’t a price point one could buy bottles for.

And for those investor Items this thread is about the values probably start at 120€ (retail price) and go up to 35k or more.

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Exactly, if the bottle is too cheap, even though the price tripples, the investors would still loose on the delivery fees :slight_smile:

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